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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
---|---|---|
Households | (Mortgage lending ↑ → House-price-to-income ratio ↑ → Housing cost-to-income burden ↑ → Household loan-delinquency rate ↑) | Higher housing cost burdens push mortgage delinquencies up, risking deterioration in banks’ asset quality. |
Households | (Unsecured credit expansion ↑ → Consumer-credit interest-rate cap binding pressure ↑ → Household debt-service ratio ↑ → Household loan-delinquency rate ↑) | Rising debt-service ratios under binding rate caps drive up unsecured credit delinquencies. |
Households | (Household debt-to-income ratio ↑ → DTI ceiling policy tightening ↑ → Credit-to-GDP gap ↓ → Recession probability ↑) | Tighter DTI ceilings widen the credit-to-GDP gap, increasing the probability of a recession. |
Financial System | (Rapid surge in household lending ↑ → Macro-prudential toolkit tightening ↑ → Financial-conditions index tightening ↑ → Recession probability ↑) | Macroprudential measures tighten financial conditions, dampening growth and raising recession risk. |
Infrastructure & Urbanization | (Mortgage lending acceleration ↑ → Affordable-housing finance ecosystem strain ↑ → Housing-price growth ↑ → Housing-affordability index ↓) | Strained affordable-housing finance channels fuel price growth, eroding housing affordability. |
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
대통령실 "이 대통령, G7서 한미·한일 정상회담 조율 중"(종합)
Office of the President: "President Lee Coordinating Korea-US and Korea-Japan Summits at G7" (Comprehensive)
Newsis | Local Language | News | June 16, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
President Lee Jae-myung is set to attend the G7 summit in Calgary, Canada on June 16, 2025. The South Korean government is coordinating bilateral meetings with the U.S. and Japan, indicating a high likelihood of summits taking place amidst ongoing consultations. Director of the National Security Office, Wi Seong-rak, emphasized this summit as a crucial moment for re-establishing South Korea's presence in summit diplomacy following a recent crisis in democracy.
Upon arrival, President Lee will engage in meetings with heads of state from major invited countries before participating in the G7 summit on June 17. He is scheduled to speak at an expanded session focused on energy security, addressing topics such as diversifying energy supplies and integrating artificial intelligence. The summit is seen as an opportunity to showcase the restoration of Korean democracy and to strategize on pressing economic and trade issues, including tariffs.
Officials indicated that working-level consultations have progressed to a tentative agreement on South Korea-U.S. and South Korea-Japan summits, despite potential variables typical of multilateral meetings. Additionally, there is a possibility for President Lee to engage in dialogue with Ukrainian President Volodyr Zelensky if he attends the summit. On the topic of relations with China, President Lee aims to balance the South Korea-U.S. alliance and cooperation with Japan while maintaining a constructive dialogue with China regarding trade and security, ensuring that bilateral discussions remain amicable.
철강·가전 이어 車까지…美 관세폭탄 속 중동 전쟁 겹쳐, 韓 수출기업 '3중고'
From steel and home appliances to cars… US tariff bomb and Middle East war overlap, Korean export companies suffer ‘triple hardship’
ET News | Local Language | News | June 16, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
The global supply chain is experiencing significant disruption due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, alongside the United States imposing high tariffs on various goods, including steel, home appliances, and automobiles. This combination of geopolitical tensions and economic policies is creating a challenging environment for Korean export companies. As of June 14, the Israeli military launched airstrikes on Iran, which retaliated, heightening fears of a broader conflict centered around Iran's nuclear ambitions.
The recent increase in international oil prices and instability in raw material supplies pose an additional risk to the export sector. Furthermore, the US has implemented high tariffs that affect production pressures domestically, while logistics are being disrupted due to rising freight costs and shifts in market dynamics, such as the preemptive removal of Chinese goods. On June 12, President Trump announced a 25% tariff on foreign-made cars and up to 50% tariffs on certain home appliances beginning June 23, intended to drive manufacturing back to the US.
Companies like Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics are adapting to these new tariffs by considering adjustments to their production lines in the US. Boiler manufacturers, previously exempt from tariffs, are also feeling the pressure as their products are now included in the tariff list. They are exploring alternatives such as relocating production to the US or increasing prices. In a related development, Nippon Steel's acquisition of US Steel has been approved, contingent on a significant investment in US steel facilities, exemplifying a strategy aimed at maintaining control over foreign investments while enhancing domestic production capacities.
ASEAN emerges as major export market for S. Korea amid global trade war
Yonhap | English | News | June 16, 2025 | UndeterminedTrade Issues and Numbers
South Korea's exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are increasing, providing a counterbalance to declines in shipments to the United States and China due to ongoing trade tensions and U.S. tariff policies. In the January-May 2025 period, exports to ASEAN reached $47.88 billion, a 4.3 percent rise from the previous year, while exports to the U.S. and China saw declines of 4.3 percent and 5 percent, respectively.
Notably, in February, South Korea's exports to ASEAN exceeded those to China for the first time in 23 years, with shipments of $9.56 billion compared to China's $9.5 billion. This trend continued in March, with exports to ASEAN reaching $10.26 billion, surpassing those to China at $10.06 billion. Although exports to ASEAN fell slightly by 1.3 percent to $10 billion in May, this was still a better performance than the 8.4 percent and 8.1 percent drops in shipments to the U.S. and China during the same month.
The Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA) has identified ASEAN as a prime export destination for South Korea this year, citing a global trend of reducing supply chain reliance on China, the rapid growth of the digital economy, and the expansion of the middle class in the region. Key export products include semiconductors, electronics, home appliances, robots, EV battery parts, and renewable energy facilities. Austin Chang of KITA highlighted that the decoupling between the U.S. and China is likely to enhance the importance of the ASEAN market as the U.S. shifts its import sources from China to ASEAN nations.
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